Southern Utah
Men - Women
2016 - 2017 - 2018
Switch to All-time Team Page
RankNameGradeRating
44  Mike Tate SR 31:29
76  Josh Collins JR 31:39
92  Matthew Wright SR 31:44
98  Kasey Knevelbaard JR 31:46
167  George Espino SR 32:03
234  Aidan Reed SO 32:15
374  Christian Ricketts FR 32:36
619  Nate Osterstock FR 33:03
National Rank #9 of 315
Mountain Region Rank #5 of 18
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 99.8%
Most Likely Finish 9th at Nationals


National Champion 0.1%
Top 5 at Nationals 7.4%
Top 10 at Nationals 41.8%
Top 20 at Nationals 92.3%


Regional Champion 0.1%
Top 5 in Regional 76.4%
Top 10 in Regional 100.0%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Mike Tate Josh Collins Matthew Wright Kasey Knevelbaard George Espino Aidan Reed Christian Ricketts Nate Osterstock
UCR Invitational 09/16 596 31:58 31:57 32:17 31:57 32:25 32:29 32:08
Joe Piane Invitational (Blue) 09/29 287 31:12 31:33 31:39 31:21 31:39 32:09 32:41 33:02
Nuttycombe Invitational 10/13 375 31:15 31:41 31:38 31:55 31:45 33:09
Idaho State Invitational 10/14 1254
Big Sky Championship 10/28 355 31:17 31:41 31:18 31:47 31:56 32:13 32:33 32:52
Mountain Region Championships 11/10 462 32:02 31:30 31:35 31:41 32:19 32:18 33:24





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 99.8% 12.3 364 0.1 0.4 1.3 2.6 3.2 5.5 6.5 6.5 8.4 7.6 7.6 7.1 6.8 5.9 4.3 4.6 4.1 4.0 3.0 3.2 2.1 1.3 1.1 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1
Region Championship 100% 4.8 128 0.1 1.1 11.7 24.4 39.3 20.7 2.6 0.4 0.1



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Mike Tate 99.8% 48.6 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.3 1.0 1.1 1.4 1.4 1.2 1.5 1.8 1.3 1.3 1.3
Josh Collins 99.8% 71.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.5
Matthew Wright 99.8% 82.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4
Kasey Knevelbaard 99.8% 85.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3
George Espino 99.8% 133.0
Aidan Reed 99.8% 161.1
Christian Ricketts 99.8% 204.2


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Mike Tate 17.2 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.5 2.0 2.7 3.0 3.5 3.5 4.7 4.0 5.2 3.8 4.9 4.1 4.5 3.8 3.9 4.2 2.9 3.3 3.3 2.9 2.7
Josh Collins 22.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.0 1.6 1.4 1.7 2.3 2.5 3.7 3.0 4.4 4.1 3.2 4.3 4.3 4.1 3.7 4.2 3.9 3.2 4.1
Matthew Wright 24.9 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.8 0.8 0.7 1.5 2.4 2.0 2.8 3.0 3.5 3.3 4.5 4.9 3.9 4.3 4.0 4.1 3.9
Kasey Knevelbaard 25.7 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.9 1.5 1.9 2.4 2.6 2.8 3.1 3.6 3.5 4.6 5.2 3.8 4.9 4.6
George Espino 34.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.6 1.5 0.9 1.6 2.2 1.9
Aidan Reed 39.9 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.8
Christian Ricketts 51.5




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 0.1% 100.0% 0.1 0.1 1
2 1.1% 100.0% 1.1 1.1 2
3 11.7% 100.0% 8.5 3.0 0.1 0.1 11.7 3
4 24.4% 100.0% 16.3 6.9 1.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 24.4 4
5 39.3% 100.0% 24.0 11.9 2.6 0.7 0.1 0.1 0.1 39.3 5
6 20.7% 100.0% 11.2 5.5 3.2 0.7 0.1 0.1 0.1 20.7 6
7 2.6% 98.1% 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 2.6 7
8 0.4% 57.1% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 8
9 0.1% 0.1 9
10 10
11 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
Total 100% 99.8% 0.1 1.1 8.5 19.3 30.9 24.1 9.1 4.6 1.4 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.3 1.1 98.7




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Colorado 100.0% 1.0 1.0
Texas 100.0% 1.0 1.0
Michigan 99.8% 2.0 2.0
Michigan State 99.4% 1.0 1.0
Air Force 98.3% 2.0 2.0
Iona 97.0% 1.0 1.0
Iowa State 95.0% 1.0 1.0
UCLA 88.5% 1.0 0.9
Minnesota 88.2% 1.0 0.9
Washington 71.7% 1.0 0.7
North Carolina St. 69.1% 2.0 1.4
Illinois 56.1% 1.0 0.6
Washington St. 42.1% 2.0 0.8
Eastern Kentucky 38.0% 2.0 0.8
Penn 37.5% 1.0 0.4
Boise State 37.1% 1.0 0.4
Alabama 34.6% 1.0 0.3
Wisconsin 26.1% 1.0 0.3
Florida State 23.7% 2.0 0.5
Purdue 22.8% 1.0 0.2
San Francisco 20.6% 1.0 0.2
Tulsa 7.9% 1.0 0.1
Eastern Michigan 4.6% 2.0 0.1
Columbia 4.0% 1.0 0.0
Virginia 3.8% 1.0 0.0
Indiana 1.0% 1.0 0.0
California 0.4% 2.0 0.0
Kentucky 0.3% 1.0 0.0
Butler 0.3% 1.0 0.0
Total 17.4
Minimum 12.0
Maximum 24.0